Study abroad

Where have all the adult students gone?

The EFL industry in Spain enjoyed a mini boom during the early years of the global economic crisis as many adult students rushed to improve their English language skills, either to get themselves back into the job market, or else in an attempt to hang on the job they had. As we reached the new decade, the boom slowed down and then started to tail-off. But no-one expected the sudden and significant drop in adult student numbers that hit the industry at the start of the current academic year.

The drop wasn’t school, city, or even region specific; it was the same story all over Spain. And the numbers were eye-watering. Depending who you talk to (and/or who you believe) adult student numbers fell by between 10-20%. Enough to make any school owner or manager wince.

What happened? Where did all these students go? Well, as is normally the case, there is no one, simple answer. There has been a slight upturn in in-company teaching, so it may be that some students, who were previously paying for their own courses in our schools, are now studying in their company (if they’re fortunate to have a job in the first place; Spanish unemployment is still well over 20%.)

The standard of English teaching in main-stream education is also getting better, slowly, so it may be that there are more school leavers who have achieved a basic level of communicative competence.

Some adult students – especially the younger ones – may also have decided to switch from a traditional, bricks and mortar language school to a Web-based classroom.

My own theory is that it’s the free movement of labour in the European Union which is having the greatest effect on our market. In other words, as there so few jobs available in Spain, hundreds of thousands of young adults – many of whom may previously have been our students – have simply upped sticks and gone abroad to find work.

A recent survey conducted in the UK indicates that migrants from Spain rose to 137,000 in 2015 (up from 63,000 in 2011). Most of them are probably working in relatively unskilled jobs in hotels, bars and restaurants, but at least they’re working – and they’re improving their English language skills as they go.

A similar number probably emigrated to other countries in the north of Europe and another significant number emigrated to Latin America. Add up all these emigrants and we could be looking at a total of well over 300,000 migrants – just in 2015.

On a recent trip to Oxford I met a young Spanish guy, working in a hotel, who had previously been a student at our school in Barcelona. He’s a typical example. Will he ever move back to Spain, I asked him? Perhaps, in the future, he said, but only if the situation in Spain changes and he can find a decent job. His new fluency in English, learnt by living and working in Oxford, might just help him with that.

So where does that leave Spanish language schools? Will adult students come back to our schools in the same numbers as before? Probably not. But that doesn’t mean we have to give up on this market. If adult students won’t come to us, we can use the Internet to take our services to them. Even those living and working abroad.

Butterflies in a storm

Civil war breaks out in Syria (for all sorts of reasons) causing thousands of casualties, mass migration and unimaginable hardship. A group of fanatics who claim to be inspired by the Koran, but who seem to be motivated primarily by their own blood lust, attempt to fill part of the power vacuum and create “so-called Islamic state”. A number of countries, including the USA, France, Russia and Iran, form an unlikely and largely uncoordinated coalition, which aims to obliterate the fanatics. This provokes fanatics elsewhere to blow up a Russian plane full of tourists and cause mayhem and mass murder in Paris. So far, so horribly familiar.

So what has this got to do with the language teaching business? Well, as a direct consequence of the horrendous events outlined above, a number of students from both France and Russia have written to us saying they are very sorry but they have been advised to postpone or cancel their courses. In some cases, whole groups of students have called off their trips.

This is collateral damage of a very mild kind and in no way compares to the tragic events going on elsewhere. But it does go to show how we are all hostages to fortune. As managers of a small, far-away business, there is absolutely nothing we can do to prevent geo-political turmoil, any more than language schools in the north of England and Ireland could prevent a volcano in Iceland disrupting their business a few years ago.

Of course it’s not just language teaching companies that are taking a hit; any business that involves international travel will be feeling the effects, some much more than we are. Just imagine how many empty hotel rooms there must be in Sharm El-Sheik at the moment.

Disruption can of course be triggered by events closer to home as well. Business can be blown off course by local political uncertainties, changes to legislation, technological innovation and a whole host of economic tremors including inflation, deflation, currency fluctuations, interest rate hikes, unemployment, sovereign debt levels… the list is almost endless.

So are we just butterflies in a storm, being blasted whichever way the wind blows hardest?  Is there anything we can do to prepare for outrageous fortune’s slings and arrows and plan our way out of trouble?

Many large organisations engage in ‘what-if’ planning, or PEST analysis, but I’m not sure that many language schools do. Perhaps we should give it some thought.

Here are a couple of links to help get you started:

http://www.businessballs.com/pestanalysisfreetemplate.htm

https://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTMC_09.htm